Recession: First In, First Out?

It’s all but certain the U.S. economy is in a recession, as falling home prices and Wall Street turmoil have put the brakes on consumer spending and stoked unemployment. But California got there first.  With its export businesses, manufacturing sector, professional services and big retail employers, California looks like many other U.S. states, only more so. California’s $1.8 trillion economy — twice the size of India’s and accounting for about 15% of the U.S. gross domestic product — is powerful enough to have ripple effects nationally. It is home to Hollywood, five of 30 Major League Baseball franchises and the largest farming sector in the nation.

California was also at the leading edge of the nation’s recent housing bubble, which is where its current problems started. Home prices in California rose higher and faster than in most of the U.S., and started weakening earlier, in 2005.  As Californians cut their spending, job losses spread from the housing sector to retail stores and auto dealers. Now the state’s unemployment rate is 7.7%, among the highest in the nation.

It’s unclear whether the state, as one of the first to enter an economic slowdown, will be among the first to emerge.

California Statistics
California Statistics

City of Vernon: SoCal’s First Exclusively Industrial City

Vernon was founded and incorporated in 1905 by James J. and Thomas J. Furlong, both ranchers, and John B. Leonis, rancher and merchant. John Leonis was of Basque origin, coming to Southern California in 1880 to work for his Uncle Miguel Leonis whose original 1862 adobe dwelling in Calabasas was designated City of Los Angeles Cultural-Historic Monument #1. John Leonis established his own ranch on unincorporated county land southeast of Downtown. Recognizing the significance of the three major railroads running through the area, he convinced railroad executives to run spur tracks off the main lines and incorporated the adjacent three miles as an “exclusively industrial” city named after a dirt road, Vernon Avenue, crossing its center.

While waiting for industry to develop in the area, the founders of the city thought of marketing Vernon as a “Sporting Town.” In 1907, on land leased from Leonis, Entrepreneur Jack Doyle opened what was billed as the “longest bar in the world.” It had 37 bartenders, 37 cash registers and a sign advising “if your children need shoes, don’t buy booze.” Next door Doyle opened the Vernon Avenue Arena where 20-round world championship fights were held starting in 1908. Soon after, the Pacific Coast (baseball) League built a ballpark with its left field corner abutting Doyle’s bar and its own entrance into the park. The Vernon Tigers won three Consecutive league pennants. Last call for Doyle’s Bar was June 30, 1919 when over 1,000 people swilled their last pre-Prohibition drink. The chamber of commerce now sits atop Doyle’s onetime empire.

After 1919, Vernon went back to being exclusively industrial. Two giant stockyards, one owned by John Leonis, opened with meat packing quickly becoming Vernon’s signature industry. Twenty-seven slaughterhouses lined Vernon Avenue from Soto Street to Downey Road until the late 1960s. Said one longtime Boyle Heights

Resident, “we could smell Vernon in the evenings at our home.”

In the 1920s and 30s, heavy industries such as steel (U.S. and Bethlehem), aluminum (Alcoa), glass (Owens), can-making (American Can) and automobile production (Studebaker) grew in the City. The 1940s and 50s added aerospace contractors (Norris Industries), box and paper manufacturers, drug companies (Brunswig), and food processors (General Mills, Kal Kan). Giant meat packers (Farmer John and Swift) continued to grow. A strong, unionized labor force meant excellent middle class incomes for thousands of families.

In 1932, the City differed with Southern California Edison over industrial rates for Electricity, John Leonis orchestrated a Vernon bond measure to authorize the construction of the city’s own Light & Power plant, which is still operational today. Low-cost power and water, along with low taxes, attracted businesses to Vernon. Later, economical factors including, the free flow of capital and labor across borders had, by 1980, utterly transformed Vernon’s industrial face.

The City’s signature businesses, the slaughterhouses, relocated. Lower-cost producers in the East and Midwest reduced meat packing plants from 27 to today’s two. Bethlehem and US Steel competed unsuccessfully with European and Asian suppliers. Studebaker and American Can are closed. Defense cutbacks negatively impacted Alcoa and Norris industries. Today smaller industrial/commercial establishments including fashion design, garment-making, film production, electronics, and waste recycling are characteristic of the business community in Vernon.

by Pete Moruzzi, 1997.

Market Update

While market activity has slowed overall in the past year, the Central Los Angeles industrial real estate area continues to demonstrate solid fundamentals.  Current indicators suggest that once the economy finds bottom, the long awaited rent growth phase will materialize.  Vacancy rates have hovered at or below 2% for 3 years and rents are stable to slightly increasing as both tenants and landlords seek immediate short-term safe solutions to mitigate cost.  Many landlords have been aggressively renewing receptive tenants avoiding vacancy, while tenants wait until the economy evidences a more positive trend to make significant long-term space commitments.

“Green” Industrial Park Planned

Los Angeles city officials hope to create jobs with a Downtown cluster of environmentally sustainable companies at a currently 20 acre parcel in an industrial area south of the 10 freeway near Santa Fe Avenue.  Up to 1 million square feet of buildings could accommodate such businesses at the site.  Tax breaks and other financial incentives will be offered.  The Community Redevelopment Agency (CRA) will be shopping the proposal to different businesses.  The site was once a bus manufacturing facility.

In Los Angeles Commercial Real Estate