Category Archives: Market Trends & Indicators

Market trends, leading or lagging indicators. As it relates to industrial property.

Market Snapshot 2021-Q1

Central Los Angeles industrial submarket overview with absorption and vacancy rate.

Supported by the phenomenal growth of e-commerce, leasing activity was strong in the first quarter after the steep declines experienced earlier in early 2020. In Q1, across the Central Market, 139 leases were signed for a total of 2,836,295 SF; the average asking rate was $0.96 PSF. Q1 leasing volume for Central LA was 25% higher than Q1 2020 levels. Another 133 warehouse properties, totaling 2,000,000 SF, were sold in the period with an average price of $291.43 PSF. The average rate will move up or down slightly quarter-to-quarter depending on how many older, functionally obsolete warehouse and manufacturing buildings are in the pool of available inventory. The limited amount of available first-generation, Class A space leases at a premium to the average rate.

Sold Warehouses Q4-2020 in Los Angeles

Map of sold buldings

Below is a list of industrial real estate listings that were sold in the 4th Quarter of 2020 over 10,000 square feet in size in the Central Los Angeles industrial submarket. Information includes: buyer, seller, sale price, square footages, and property features for warehouses and manufacturing buildings.

Arts District of DTLA

Historically, the Arts District was home to industrial users who manufactured, distributed, and warehoused goods ranging from toys to frozen fish. Over time, the multi-story industrial buildings became antiquated and functionally obsolete – they began transitioning to lofts and studios for artists. About a decade ago, developers started converting the former warehouses into live/work lofts – starting with Barker Block Lofts, Toy Factory Lofts, and Biscuit Company Lofts. These projects helped spark a renewed interest in the Arts District, and the retailers have followed suit. Award-winning restaurants, designer apparel brands, and a multitude of breweries and cozy coffee shops make this neighborhood of mural-splashed warehouses truly unique.

The Arts District has also become a hotbed of residential and mixed-use development, with projects aimed at luring new residents to the live-work-play atmosphere of the area. The real estate players in area have shifted from private/local investors to developers with institutional funding, such as Shorenstein, Tishman Speyer, Hudson Pacific, etc. Office tenants are also vying to call this neighborhood home – Warner music Group, Adidas, Spotify and more will soon be settling into their world-class creative office spaces.

Although the landscape of the Arts District is changing dramatically, the intent of the developers and the local community is to keep the integrity, character, culture, and aesthetics intact for the most unique district of Downtown Los Angeles.

VItal Property Stats – The Past Decade

If you want to get a quick feel for the strength of the Central Los Angeles Industrial submarket, then glance at the below chart. It shows the 3 key metrics over the past decade.

The vital property statistic that I focus on the most is our low vacancy rate at just under 4%. The Southern California industrial real estate market has generally had the lowest vacancy rate in the United States over the past decade. Why? Because demand from tenants and buyers is very strong and we are an infill market given we have run out of vacant land to construct new buildings.

Here are the definitions of the other two metrics in the chart. For a complete list of commercial real estate terms defined please see our Glossary.

Net Absorption: The square feet leased in a specific geographic area over a fixed period-of-time after deducting space vacated in the same area during the same period.

Net Deliveries: The square feet of new construction delivered to the market minus any buildings that were demolished.

VOTE “NO” on Prop 15

Don’t be fooled by the proponents of California’s Proposition 15, known as the split-roll property tax increase. If this measure passes it will devastate commercial property owners and the tenants.

How? Because hundreds of thousands of properties will be re-assessed at current market value and the annual tax bills on these will increase from $10-30k to $100-300k. Who will pay this? Well landlords with market rent may end up selling because their income may turn from positive to negative, as in a net loss.

Many landlords will try to pass off the increases to tenants since most commercial leases allow tax increases to be passed through to tenants. The tenants of course won’t be able to pay the increases and will likely default on their leases and may go bankrupt.

The CA legislature could have eliminated Prop 13 loopholes but they rejected that bill because they want to go for the big dollars in Prop 15, which will devastate the already pandemic devastated California economy. Vote NO.