It’s all but certain the U.S. economy is in a recession, as falling home prices and Wall Street turmoil have put the brakes on consumer spending and stoked unemployment. But California got there first.  With its export businesses, manufacturing sector, professional services and big retail employers, California looks like many other U.S. states, only more so. California’s $1.8 trillion economy — twice the size of India’s and accounting for about 15% of the U.S. gross domestic product — is powerful enough to have ripple effects nationally. It is home to Hollywood, five of 30 Major League Baseball franchises and the largest farming sector in the nation.

California was also at the leading edge of the nation’s recent housing bubble, which is where its current problems started. Home prices in California rose higher and faster than in most of the U.S., and started weakening earlier, in 2005.  As Californians cut their spending, job losses spread from the housing sector to retail stores and auto dealers. Now the state’s unemployment rate is 7.7%, among the highest in the nation.

It’s unclear whether the state, as one of the first to enter an economic slowdown, will be among the first to emerge.