Tag Archives: defaults

CMBS Delinquencies Soar, Industrial Defaults Low Compared to Hotel, Multi-Family, and Retail

CMBS issuance, industrial, retail, hotel, office

The secondary market for commercial real estate is just beginning to show new life, with the first successful sale of a commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) package in over a year and several new issues in the wings spurred by the strong investor interest on that initial offering. But the positives of renewed activity are tempered by more bad news on the performance of those commercial bond deals made before the freeze.

According to a new report from commercial research provider Trepp, delinquent loans in commercial mortgage securities jumped 85 basis points to 5.65 percent at the end of November. That figure is up from just 4.8 percent a month earlier.

The delinquency rate was highest in the hotel sector, where defaults skyrocketed from 8.67 percent in October to 14.09 percent in November. According to Trepp, the upsurge came from a single Extended Stay Hotel loan. Without it in the mix, the hotel delinquency rate would have increased only 64 basis points, to a little over 9 percent.

Based on Trepp’s analysis, delinquencies on multifamily CMBS loans rose to 8.78 percent in November, up from 7.66 percent the previous month. All other sector’s showed slighter increases. Retail edged up from 4.53 percent to 4.78 percent. Industrial increased from 3.18 percent to 3.33 percent. Office loan delinquencies crept up from 3.08 percent to 3.14 percent.

Trepp says there were $65.2 billion in CMBS loans in special servicing at the end of November, an increase of $8.2 billion, or 14 percent, compared to October.  There are very few CMBS related distressed properties in the Los Angeles area.  from dsnews.com.  image from wsj

CMBS Defaults Coming, Haven’t Yet Arrived En Masse

2010, 2011 and 2012 will be difficult years with a significant number of commercial mortgages reaching the end of their five-year lifespans, but another set is coming due in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

About $185 billion of the $600 billion in commercial mortgage-backed loans issued between 2005 and 2007 are scheduled to mature between 2010 and 2012. It’s not only CMBS that market watchers should be worried about, because $1 trillion worth of commercial mortgage maturities will occur by 2012, including CMBS, bank loans and insurance company loans.

There are many hungry buyers sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to pounce.  A limited number of them have been able to find bargains, but most of coming commercial real estate defaults will occur in Office and Retail, with Industrial markets holding better ground.  The Central Los Angeles Industrial market has witnessed very few CMBS defaults at this time.